So after the usual nerve-jangling Forest season, this season more so than most, how of each of the members of the senior men's squad performed, and who is likely up for the chop?
Each player has a report card, my thoughts on their transfer status, and then a reflection at the bottom about sensible transfer activity for the positions in the article.
But as my mantra goes, the answer is in data! So I have pulled relevant data statistics from fbref.com (fed by Opta data) to analyse player performance in key areas.
With the whole squad to review, this article covers the Midfielders. For the other positions, please see (links will be updated as articles are published):
Midfielders
For this analysis, Cafu has been excluded as he has only clocked up 1/10th of a game all season and will nearly certainly be moved on this summer. Andre Ayew has been included in midfielders as it seems this is where he was being used by Cooper most of the time. He had racked up 3.5 games, so there is enough data to be at least indicative of performance.
Midfielders are a diverse bunch, each having a slightly different role, on sliding scales involving defence, playmaking and attacking. So to be able to see if the midfielders are living up to their perceived roles and perceived performances, I have broken down the characteristics into 4 types to analyse:
Defensive
Passing
Ball Carrying
Shooting and Assists
There is a lot of statistical analysis, so if this level of intrigue/detail is not for you, please just skip to the summary at the end when I round up what we have learned from all 4 of the sections when we aggregate them together! The player report cards follow that summary.
The colour rating scheme I have used is a comparison between the Forest players (gold for leading the stat, then green, amber and red as expected). It does not reflect how well that stat compares to the overall Premiership standard. That analysis is done in the overall squad en-of-season report.
Defensive
If we start with the Defensive section, we are going to use 3 of the same characteristics as with the defenders but replace 2 of them (Blocking and Clearing) with one that is more fitting for midfielders (Heading - which for defenders is baked into Clearing):
- TacklesWon - the number of successful tackles winning back possession per 90 minutes
- Interception - the number of successful interceptions made per 90 minutes
- Recover - the number of loose balls recovered per 90 minutes
- Aerial% - the percentage of aerial duels won over the season
For this section, the names that we expect to do well due to the roles they are usually allocated to are Colback, Freuler and Kouyate. Yates, Mangala, O'Brien and Danilo as box-to-box midfielder types should be adequate in this section. How did they actually perform this season in the Premiership?
​ | TacklesWon | Interception | Recover | Aerial% |
Yates | 0.9 | 0.5 | 5.4 | 58% |
Colback | 2.4 | 0.6 | 4.4 | 33% |
Freuler | 1 | 1.2 | 5.7 | 57% |
O'Brien | 1.4 | 0.8 | 7.9 | 25% |
Mangala | 1.2 | 1.3 | 5.1 | 55% |
Kouyate | 2.1 | 1 | 5.7 | 69% |
Danilo | 0.7 | 0.8 | 5.6 | 22% |
Shelvey | 0.2 | 0.8 | 5.3 | 80% |
Ayew | 0.9 | 0 | 2.6 | 39% |
Data insights: The standout midfielder from a defensive capacity is Kouyate with top-end stats in each characteristic. This should be expected as he can double as a central defender. But winning 2 tackles, 1 interception and nearly 3/4 of headed duels per game, whilst also recovering nearly 6 balls per game, he is performing well at Premiership level and pulling his weight in this defensive role.
Looking at the other defensively deployed midfielders, Colback leads the group in successful tackle rate but is very low compared to the others on interceptions, ball recovering and heading duels. Freuler does well at interceptions and ball recoveries, but surprisingly only gets in 1 successful tackle per game, and roughly wins half of headed duels. So he fares better than Colback, but not as well as Kouyate.
Mangala's data puts him with the same defensive profile as Freuler but with slightly better tackling, group leading interceptions, but slightly lower rates of ball recovery and winning headed duels. So honours even between them in a defensive capacity.
When we look at the other box-to-box midfielders, the statistics show that a lot of dependence is put on that defensive role. Potentially controversially, O'Brien comes out marginally on top over Yates and Danilo. He leads the midfielders in ball recovery by a large margin, is 3rd in tackling, 4th= in interceptions but only wins 1 in 4 headed duels. Yates comes in marginally better than Danilo. Yates has a decent level of ball recovery (5th) but surprisingly is low on the other characteristics, only winning just over half of headed duels, intercepting only once every two games and making just less than 1 successful tackle a game. Danilo is marginally better than Yates at interception and ball recovery rates, but has a slightly lower successful tackling rate and ranks the lowest of the midfielders in the air.
Ayew ranks very low across all the characteristics, but surprisingly Shelvey's data is quite strong in this defensive section for a technician. He leads in headed duels by a margin and has a decent ball recovery rate. His interceptions are low but still better than Yates and Colback, but his successful tackle rate is the lowest by a large margin, only managing one every 5 games.
Passing
Moving to the passing area, this is one where we would expect all of the midfielders to be doing well at the short game, but we are focussing on the passing creativity element here. It is at the centre of Forest retaining possession, which given they usually have very low possession in a game, is critical to make the counter-attacks work, but also to relieve some pressure on the defence when in possession. The characteristics selected ignored the impactless short passing backwards and sideways but focussed on forward passing and longer-ranged efforts.
Those that don't lead at defensive actions will be looking to be better at the more progressive elements of the game, so either passing as we are looking at here, or carrying the ball which will come after this section.
- Prog90 - the average number of yards the ball was passed forwards per 90 minutes
- ProgPass - the average number of times per 90 mins the ball was successfully passed forward at least 10 yards further than any point on the field in the last 6 passes. Note that passes starting from the Forest back 40 yards do not count. (read this as injecting attacking positivity)
- MidCompl - average percentage of completion of passes between 15 and 30 yards per 90 mins
- LongCompl - average percentage of completion of passes over 30 yards per 90 mins
​ | Prog 90 | ProgPass | MidCompl | LongCompl |
Yates | 89yds | 2.1 | 87% | 53% |
Colback | 81yds | 2.9 | 87% | 73% |
Freuler | 134yds | 2.3 | 84% | 46% |
O'Brien | 100yds | 3.2 | 82% | 44% |
Mangala | 105yds | 2.5 | 84% | 52% |
Kouyate | 90yds | 1.9 | 84% | 72% |
Danilo | 91yds | 3.2 | 73% | 47% |
Shelvey | 310yds | 5.7 | 88% | 48% |
Ayew | 42yds | 3.1 | 62% | 0% |
Data insights: The standout midfielder would be as we would expect. Shelvey, who was brought in to be a technician on the ball, leads in 3 of the 4 characteristics and leads by a large margin when it comes to moving the ball up the pitch. A little surprisingly he is not in the top long passers in midfield (5th).
There are 3 players that come in at the next level. Very interesting it includes O'Brien, who was left out of the 25-person squad in January, and the seldom-used utility player Colback. Mangala makes up the trio, and each fair comparatively very well across 3 of the 4 characteristics.
O'Brien suffers with the second lowest success at long passing but is 2nd= at injecting forward momentum and 4th at moving the ball forward and is decent at midrange passing.
Colback leads with a strong and leading rating of nearly 3/4 of long passes finding their target. His midrange passing is 2nd= and he is 5th at injecting forward momentum. But having the second lowest average amount of forward passing yards, it seems he passes forward a few times each game, but with great accuracy.
Mangala is probably the most consistent of the 3, with his stats being at the higher end of each of the 3 characteristics he does well at, with his rate of injecting forward momentum being the only characteristic that was not leading, but still not terrible (2.5 passes per game). He could suffer from being the player breaking up play in front of the back line and so his passes forward do not count towards the statistic due to starting in the back 40 yards of the pitch. Given he is 3rd at forward passing yards per game, this might explain it, and so actually he runs as the second-best in this category, ahead of O'Brien and Colback.
What is concerning is that if we think of the settled XI that Cooper used in the run-in that saved Forest from relegation, only Mangala is in the starting team. So passing needs to be worked on, which is where the data backs up the social media sentiment.
Of the rest, two get the next level of recognition from their stats: Kouyate and Freuler. Both operate in that deeper role, so like Mangala, most likely have a depressed stat for injecting forward momentum (which is lower than for most others). They then have two high-ranking statistics. Freuler is 2nd at yardage for passing the ball forward and has decent midrange pass completions. But Kouyate fits the mould of the Colback model of not passing a huge distance forward each game but is about level with Colback as the best all-range passers in midfield.
Danilo is actually 2nd= at injecting forward momentum with passing, but his passing accuracy needs to be improved. But he, like Yates, is not passing forward as much as the others per game.
Yates has a good set of all-range passing, but as mentioned it seems he is not passing the ball forward as much as other midfielders (7th in yards per game and 8th at injecting forward momentum). It might be, as with Danilo, that more positive work is done with the ball at their feet. The next section will look at that!
Ayew is comfortably bottom in the passing section, with only injecting some forward momentum being a decent level of statistic.
Ball Carrying
This section is not necessarily a strong suit of all midfielders, but it might the box-to-box midfielders that might fare better here. What is of note though is any midfielder that has not sat near the top of the pack in defensive skills or passing skills should be performing well in this section. It also adds in a general characteristic that all midfield should be good at and this controlling the ball when received. Not being dispossessed is key for all midfielders, but those travelling with the ball are more prone to being dispossessed.
The characteristics for ball-carrying mirror that of passing fairly well:
- Prog90 - the average number of yards the ball was dribbled forwards per 90 minutes
- ProgCarry - the average number of times per 90 mins the ball was successfully dribbled forward at least 10 yards further than any point on the field in the last 6 passes. Note that dribbles that end still in the Forest half of the pitch do not count. (read this as injecting attacking positivity)
- TakeOn - the average number of defenders successfully dribbled past per 90 mins
- Miscontrol - the average number of times per 90 mins attempting to control the ball failed
- Dispossess - the average number of times per 90 mins the ball is lost after being tackled by the opposition
​ | Prog90 | ProgCarry | TakeOn | Dispossess | Miscontrol |
Yates | 28yds | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
Colback | 38yds | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.9 |
Freuler | 40yds | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.8 |
O'Brien | 80yds | 2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
Mangala | 48yds | 0.8 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
Kouyate | 30yds | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.6 |
Danilo | 41yds | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.9 |
Shelvey | 74yds | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
Ayew | 29yds | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
Data insights: Looking at these statistics, it starts painting the picture that part of the threat that Forest have lacked in the Premiership vs when in the Championship is the threat from the midfield with the ball at the player's feet.
There is 1 player that sits comfortably above the others when it comes to travelling with the ball in a positive manner. To some, they may be surprised that once again O'Brien is coming out on top. He has at least double the yards progressed forward with the ball than all the other midfielders, other than Shelvey. The same large margin is held with the number of times injecting forward momentum via dribbling. He also sits 2nd in successfully beating defenders per 90 mins. Where he lets himself down, which will be the thing that stands out with the fans, and maybe the coaching staff, is having the worst stats for miscontrolling the ball and losing possession. The latter may very well be a by-product of his positive drive with the ball at his feet but he does need an end product after running. He still though clearly has more positive actions with the ball even when taking away dispossessions.
The next two midfielders in the ranking in this section are Mangala and Danilo. Mangala is 3rd best in terms of moving the ball forward and also successfully taking on defenders. He is 5th when injecting momentum with the ball at his feet, and given he is usually protecting the back line and stat only counts when dribbling into the opposition half, this stat is more impressive. He is top3 in both the ball protection characteristics.
Danilo comes alive with the ball at his feet in the opposition's half. He leads in successfully taking on defenders and is 2nd in injecting momentum via dribbling. He does need to work on his ball control when receiving it and should take on more responsibility travelling forward with the ball.
Shelvey's stats are interesting but I have a theory with his 2nd highest stat for travelling forward with the ball but the lowest stat for injecting momentum with forward dribbling. I think he clocks up forward yards shifting the ball forward slowly about 5-10 yards each time whilst looking for a pass, so slowly racking up many short positive dribbling yards. As a technician, he expectedly leads the characteristic for not miscontrolling the ball.
The midfielders that spend more time protecting the back line, other than Mangala, do not excel at this section. Colback (who protects the ball better than any other midfielder) is ahead of Kouyate (who surprisingly miscontrols the ball more than any other midfielder, equal with Danilo) who is ahead of Freuler (who is the 2nd best at protecting the ball).
Surprisingly Yates does not shine at all in this section, with the least positive yards with the ball at his feet, 3rd lowest instances of injecting momentum via dribbling, the lowest instances of beating defenders (lower than Freuler and Ayew) and middling stats for ball control.
Ayew once again is bottom of the pack, with the only positive note being he was 3rd= in injecting momentum with forward dribbles.
Shooting and Assist
In a successful Premiership team, the midfield needs to chip in with goals, assists and chance creations. This is not just about the more attacking-style midfielders. The more defensive-style midfielders also get in on the act from headers, flick-ons and balls into the box from corners, freekicks and Niakhate long throws.
Unlike the other sections, this section does not draw red statistics for low stats other than for the percentage of getting shots on target. The other characteristics are encouraged by midfielders, so can be yellows for areas for improvement, rather than red for underperformance.
- KeyPass - the average number of passes that directly lead to a shot per 90 mins (chance creation)
- Assist - the average number of assists per 90 mins
- Shots - the average number of shots per 90 mins
- SoT% - the average percentage of all shots on target in the season
- Goals - the average number of goals scored per 90 mins
​ | KeyPass | Assist | Shots | SoT% | Goals |
Yates | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 19% | ​ |
Colback | 0.4 | ​ | 0 | n/a | ​ |
Freuler | 0.5 | ​ | 0.3 | 13% | ​ |
O'Brien | 0.6 | ​ | 1.1 | 29% | 0.15 |
Mangala | 0.2 | 0.06 | 0.5 | 33% | 0.06 |
Kouyate | 0.6 | ​ | 0.6 | 83% | 0.1 |
Danilo | 0.7 | 0.19 | 1.4 | 27% | 0.28 |
Shelvey | 1 | ​ | 1 | 0% | ​ |
Ayew | 0.3 | ​ | 0.9 | 33% | ​ |
Data insights: When it comes to being a goal threat, Danilo is clearly the most valuable midfielder. He is weighing in with an assist every 5 games and a goal nearly every 3 games (3 goals and 2 assists). If you extrapolate that over a whole Premiership season, he would have 12-13 goals and 7-8 assists! He leads in shots on goal, and he now just needs to work on getting these on target (although noted that in the run-in he scored 3 goals so his accuracy did improve over the season). He is also 2nd=, only behind Shelvey, for chance creation (key passes).
Yates finally gets a look in with some decent stats being 2nd in assists (2 assists) and shots taken, but only 1 in 5 of his shots have been on target this season. If you don't get it on target, you can't score. Yates is not alone in this stark statistic, with only Kouyate having a great stat for this (83%), but the next best is Mangala and Ayew with 1 in 3 shots being on target. This needs to be a focus for pre-season.
Kouyate, O'Brien and Mangala come next in my opinion. Kouyate and O'Brien are creating a chance at a rate slightly more than 1 every other game. All 3 have a goal this season, with O'Brien achieving his with less overall game time than Kouyate, who in turn has less game time than Mangala for his. O'Brien has double the rate of shots of the other 2, but Kouyate makes up for that with his outstanding accuracy shooting on target. O'Brien and Mangala have roughly the same accuracy on target. But Mangala is the only 1 of the 3 with an assist, even though his rate of key chances is lower than the other 2 (a mix of quality of chances created and striker form).
Yates comes in closely behind them with his 2 assists and strong shot rate but is let down by a lack of goals, poor consistency on target and rate of chance creation (7th=).
Shelvey has the best rate for chance creation at 1 a game but has no assists. He is also 4th in shot rate but has failed to get a single one on target all season.
Of the rest, Ayew does better than Freuler with a better shot rate and accuracy on target, although Freuler does create a chance every other game. Colback brings up the rear with no shots all season and the 6th highest chance creation rate.
Data insight summary
If we try and pull who did well at what, we can summarise the top performers within the midfielders as follows:
Defensive: Kouyate, Mangala, Freuler
Passing: Shelvey, Mangala, O'Brien, Colback
Ball Carrying: O'Brien, Mangala, Danilo
Shooting and Assists: Danilo, Kouyate, O'Brien, Mangala
From this simple view, Mangala is the only midfielder to be among the leading midfielders in every section, so ranks as the best overall midfielder. O'Brien, despite being shipped out in January, ranks as second best and must be a talking point for his role for next season. Kouyate and Danilo feature in 2 of the 4 sections, so are showing their value as top midfielders. This works well with Kouyate as a defensive line protector, Mangala who is actually turning into a good box-to-box midfielder (or should be used as that), O'Brien is creative and attacking and Danilo is the raiding attacker supporting the forward line. Cooper can pick from these for the right blend for each game.
For a slightly more detailed and alternative summary, but also highly subjective in how I allocate colour rankings for each stat and how I rank aggregating the results, the midfielders rank as follows:
​ | Greens (and Golds) | Golds | Reds |
Mangala | 10 | 1 | 0 |
Shelvey | 9 | 6 | 3 |
O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 3 |
Danilo | 8 | 4 | 3 |
Kouyate | 9 | 1 | 1 |
Colback | 5 | 3 | 1 |
Freuler | 6 | 0 | 3 |
Yates | 5 | 0 | 4 |
Ayew | 1 | 0 | 10 |
Many would say there is an intangible value on the pitch of leadership and that players like Yates, Freuler and Colback provide lift for the other players around them for greater team performance. So to see if this really is the case (as I will do for the overall end-of-term report summary for the whole squad) these are characteristics that might point to that, indicating the difference in team performance between being on and off the pitch:
- On/OffGD - goal difference when the player is on the pitch minus the goal difference when the player is off the pitch
- On/OffXG - the same as the above, but using Opta stats for expected goals (this can be argued to be less reliant on striker performance to take their chances, and more about quality of chances, but XG stats are very judgemental, and not an absolute statistic like the above is)
​ | On/OffGD | ​ | ​ | ON/OffXG |
Mangala | +1.23 | ​ | Yates | +0.69 |
Danilo | +1.1 | ​ | Mangala | +0.21 |
Yates | +0.22 | ​ | Ayew | -0.09 |
Shelvey | -0.25 | ​ | Kouyate | -0.13 |
Ayew | -0.7 | ​ | Danilo | -0.15 |
O'Brien | -0.72 | ​ | Colback | -0.3 |
Colback | -0.77 | ​ | Freuler | -0.31 |
Kouyate | -0.86 | ​ | O'Brien | -0.51 |
Freuler | -1.25 | ​ | Shelvey | -0.55 |
Data insight: Given Forest finished with a goal difference of -30, the numbers will be mainly negative above but it is the relative order of players that is interesting. It seems that Mangala and Yates provide that positive influence on the team around them (either verbally or by action), both in reality and in theoretically expected goals.
Forest leaked 34 goals in both the first 19 games and the last 19 games of the season, but they found more goals in the second half of the season with 23 goals vs 15 in the first half of the season. So players that featured more in the first half of the season, when the team was less settled, will tend to have a negatively skewed set of results. This would impact O'Brien, who only played in the first half of the season, as well as Freuler. But what is notable is how low down Freuler is in both lists indicating that he does not have the same impact of presence as Yates or Mangala.
Player Report Cards
Ryan Yates - Keep (Report card - 5/10)
For the club vice-captain, this season has not been up to the standard Yates expects for himself. He has been blighted with illness and very well may have been playing, due to other injuries, when he was not 100% well. He clocked up the 8th most minutes (20.4 games) across the squad, which is below his usual maximum contribution.
His stats above are actually really poor across the board, but despite that he has popped up around the box to provide 2 assists and a number of shots (although with poor accuracy). From the final analysis above, we can see the positive impact he has on the team with his passion and drive. But at Premiership level, that is not enough as each player on the pitch needs to contribute in all areas. If it was not for the leadership impact, his report card score would have been even lower. He will be hoping for a good pre-season, get up to full fitness and up his level again, as he has for every league-tier step-up he has faced, and show he is Premiership quality next season.
He is a leader on and off the pitch, so should be kept and given the opportunity to make that step up next season. He is also a key link to the culture at the club being an Academy player. But next season is key for him.
Jack Colback - Let contract expire (Report card - 6/10)
Mr. Flexible has been a wonderful servant to the Forest team over the years and has fixed injury problems out of his natural position without ever complaining. Colback has not had the minutes the other midfielders have this season (5.5 games, only above Ayew) but he has shown in that time when it comes to tackling and then passing the ball around the pitch, there is no one better in the squad. It is the other parts of this game that let him down now, and with other players like Mangala and Kouyate that are more rounded, he has found himself down the pecking order.
With a huge amount of gratitude, Colback should be released when his contract expires at the end of this season.
Remo Freuler - Keep if not upgraded (Report card - 5/10)
Freuler was brought in to be the midfield marshall and in many ways be an upgrade on Colback. Cooper evidently favoured him with him being given the 5th most minutes (24 games) in the whole squad and the most of the midfielders. Fans were split on his efficacy, was he doing the role and not being noticed as some of the best DMC's operate, or simply were games passing him by?
He does not excel in the defensive section nor in the passing section. He also is only 1 of 3 of the 9 midfielders that does not lead in any of the data characteristics in all the analyses above (Yates and Ayew are the other 2). He does though come 2nd at progressing the ball forward with passing and his defensive stats are on the higher side although not excelling as you would expect given his role.
As such, he forms a good backup to the midfield. As I think he sits as 6th in the pecking order of midfielders (with 6 being the optimal number in the final squad and assuming Shelvey is being moved on), two factors go into his transfer status:
1) do Forest bring in another high-quality midfielder? If so, Kouyate and Mangala are able to perform the defensive role, so Freuler is not needed anymore.
2) is Freuler on a large wage package and if so for FFP purposes, would it make sense to move him on and bring in a less expensive squad midfielder, maybe in a less defensive role to give the midfield more balanced options?
Lewis O'Brien - Keep (Report card - 8/10)
This may be even more controversial with fans than the Yates summary. O'Brien was moved out in January and was left without a club when his proposed move failed to Blackburn Rovers, but luckily D.C United came in and gave him game time (8 appearances and a goal).
It is noted through all the above chaos in January, he was highly professional even when highly frustrated, which shows all the qualities Cooper is looking for and that Forest need in the squad. But the key here is his stats. Other than the issue of protecting the ball, which can be worked on in pre-season training, O'Brien ran Mangala very close for best midfielder statistically. He is top at recovering the ball, the most progressive with the ball at his feet, with high-ranking passing statistics and gets in a shot a game. If he had been here all season and kept up the stat levels, he could have scored higher.
Very seriously Forest should look at getting him back in for pre-season, show him the love and get him integrated into the positive vibe at the club and in the squad. He should then be given the opportunity to fight for a starting place in the team and hopefully add to the goal he got this season.
Orel Mangala - Keep (Report card - 9/10)
Mangala has improved as the season has progressed and was a less visible key player in the run-in that saved Forest's Premiership status (Awoniyi, Gibbs-White and Danilo grabbed the headlines). He was the 11th most used squad member (17.2 games, which is 3rd for midfielders). In the stats, he sits top of the pile and the reason for that is that he does well across all the sections, popping up as the leader in one characteristic: interceptions. He does not have a single stat that is flagged as red (the only midfielder as such). Importantly he is probably the best at protecting the ball but is also good at passing and dribbling. He is the dynamic box-to-box midfielder that is needed.
Given the progression in his performances in the back end of the season, with a good pre-season under his belt and a settled XI being picked, Mangala could be a highly valuable player for Forest next season and should get more game time.
Cheikhou Kouyate - Keep (Report card - 8/10)
Kouyate did a great job at Crystal Palace and there was hope he could bring that solidity to the Forest midfield. Partially due to injury, he was not used as much as many other players in the squad with 9.8 games (20th in the squad, 5th for midfielders).
When used, Kouyate has quietly done exactly what he was brought in to do, which is break up the play and protect the back line. Although he does not lead on any of the defensive characteristics, he is around the top in each and provides some important aerial effectiveness. He is pretty level with Colback leading in all ranges of successful passing. He is also the only midfielder with a good (very good!) shooting accuracy.
Kouyate is the answer to any formation that requires steel in front of the defence and provides a threat in the air from set pieces and Niakhate's long throws. He will be a valuable member of the midfield unit next season.
Danilo - Keep (Report card - 8/10)
Danilo embodies what all the excitement is about at Forest. He is now still 21 years old, he has been trusted to play 10.8 games this season, and once up to speed with the English game and the Premiership, was a shining light in the run-in that saved Forest's Premiership membership. In the key games that turned around Forest's fortunes and belief against Brighton, Brentford and Southampton, he scored a goal a game and chipped in with an assist.
He had a period of adjustment in the few games earlier in the season when he was thrown into the deep end too soon due to injuries. Those games will have pulled down his stats but he still does need to work on his passing accuracy and ball control. It would be good to see him influence the game by dribbling with the ball as his feet more and more as he develops.
But a side of the game many will not have picked up on is that he comfortably puts in more blocks per 90 mins (2.4) than ANY other Forest player (even Filipe!).
On his scoring and assists, only Awoniyi has a better scoring rate, and he is only behind Dennis (see the forwards section!) and Gibbs-White with his assist rate.
There is no doubt as to his talent and how much more there is to come with him. The end-of-season performance is a marker for him to get back fit, into pre-season, bulk up a bit and get enough endurance to be able to contribute over a whole season at that level.
Jonjo Shelvey - Sell (Report card - 6/10)
Shelvey was brought in during the January window to add the creativity role to the Forest midfield. His stats underline his technical excellence compared with his fellow midfielders with leading passing stats, although his long-range passing (over 30 yards) should be better (5th). He leads on key passes (chance creation) but didn't have an assist all season.
This creativity does come at a price as he only manages a successful tackle once in every 5 games, which is a luxury that Forest really can't afford if he is not producing assists for the forwards, or at least more than his 1 chance created per game. There is this same yin and yang with his shooting. He manages a shot a game but failed to get a single one on target all season. He only managed to get 6 games this season (less than O'Brien) and that seemed like a mix of fitness, being a luxury role in a team set up to counter-attack and not fitting with the culture being cultivated. When not being played, Lingard was seen on the touchlines cheering on the team and Henderson was also there on his crutches. Where was Shelvey?
But all the above is fairly academic. Cooper and he had some form of issue in training that Cooper downplayed but it is now alleged that he headbutted a member of bar staff. All in all, he seems not to fit with the level of conduct and team spirit that Cooper has built and wants to grow, so no matter the skill with the ball at his feet, he should be sold. This should also free up a good chunk of wage space on the roster.
Andre Ayew - Let contract expire (Report card - 3/10)
Ayew was brought in during the January window, with Cooper having worked with him during their Swansea days. He was given the equivalent of 3.5 games but was predominantly used as a substitute as he appeared in 13 games. Fans seemed to get increasingly agitated with him being deployed over other options from the bench. Although coming on as a substitute can have an impact on stats as you get up to speed with the game, it can also swing in your favour for positive actions in a few minutes that get extrapolated over 90 mins.
Sadly for Ayew, there is not much margin for incorrect interpretation as he is in the bottom red rating for over half of the characteristics. Only injecting forward momentum with passing was seen as a higher-end green statistic (4th).
This should be a simple case of letting his contract expire and freeing up what I imagine is a good chunk of the wage roster.
Transfer notes: With 10 midfielders above, including Cafu, Cooper would be looking to trim this back down to 6, which would give a backup for each of a possible midfield 3, having been favoured at times this season.
Slimming down is actually not too difficult as Cafu, Ayew and Colback are on the way out this summer, or should be with all logic. Assuming there are no other midfield signings this summer that leaves one more to trim. Given the alleged issues with Shelvey and how key the team dynamic is to Cooper and the success of the team avoiding relegation, it logically should be Shelvey to be sold.
Looking at what is left in terms of the balance of the 6 midfielders, Kouyate very much acts as the anchor protecting the backline, a role that Freuler should be able to do as an understudy. Mangala can also do this if the midfield is to be less attacking-minded and dial back his box-to-box role.
Box-to-box midfielders come in the form of Mangala, O'Brien and Yates, with tweaked instructions per game to focus more/less on attack/defence each game.
As he develops, Danilo will become that link from midfield to the forwards mainly through ball carrying and will interact with the AMC role (most likely Gibbs-White when fit).
Given the two best passers of the ball are Colback and Kouyate, and if Shelvey is being sold, there is a bit of a creative hole in midfield. This can be filled if Scarpa finds fitness and stamina for the Premiership and can slot back into midfield to allow him and Gibbs-White on the pitch at the same time.
If one more upgrade to midfield is brought in, then Freuler is the one to make way in my opinion due to the coverage in that anchor or engine room role. Someone that can tackle but has impressive creativity with passing (Scarpa can be backup) would fit the bill. In that way the midfield approach can be tailored between defensive, attacking passing and attacking ball carrying for each game. Anyone being brought in should improve what is already at the club.
Do you agree with these ratings and transfer predictions? Do the stats surprise you at all? Please let me know below! Much appreciated!