So we have looked at each of the players, and the manager, individually through parts 1-4 of the end-of-season review blogs. But in each, players were compared against each other in the squad and stats were colour coded in line with those inter-squad Forest-only comparisons.
The aim here is to look wider at how good players are in terms of the Premiership pool of players, and that should also help to inform who should be kept and what is needed in this transfer window. Once again, I have poured into the data, using the fbref.com website (which has data feeds from Opta) to compare Forest players to all Premiership players.
I have also looked at how Forest as a team ranked vs the other Premiership teams, so give insight as to what Forest need to improve, either through tactics, training or new players.
For a number of the characteristics that we will look at, there will be a qualifying participation needed to rank, e.g. needing 15 shots in a season to be listed in the ranking for shot-based ratios (like % of shots on target). I have also pulled out any player that has not played at least 5 games, as stats tend to be skewed with a low amount of game time. Generally, I have looked for Forest players in and around the top 50 players for a characteristic, but have gone lower when highlighting a trait in the team that probably needs uplifting.
Many of the characteristics you will recognise from the other reports, where I picked the most relevant for the type of players. Once we have looked at these stats, and also using the information from the other reports, we can talk about what gaps need filling in this transfer window.
Standard stats
- Goals - Awoniyi 18th= (10), Johnson 29th= (8)
- Assists - Gibbs-White 9th= (8)
Goalkeeping stats (min 5 games to qualify)
- GoalsAgainst/90 - Forest 16th= - Henderson 18th (1.72), Navas 22nd (1.88)
- Save% - Forest 15th - Navas 15th (66.3%), Henderson 17th (65.9%)
- CleanSheet% - Forest 17th - Henderson 6th (33.3%), Navas 23rd/last (5.9%)
- Penalty Save% - Forest 6th= - Henderson 1st= (50%), Navas 15th/last= (0%)
- PSxG-GA/90 (expected goals to be conceded - actually conceded per game) - Forest 18th - Navas 16th= (-0.16), Henderson 21st (-0.23)
- StopCross% - Forest 13th - Henderson 10th= (6.9%), Navas 19th (4.7%)
- DefOPA/90 (defending out of area) - Forest 15th - Henderson 7th= (1.50), Navas 23rd/last (0.53)
Defensive stats (min 5 games to qualify plus other factors)
- TackleslWon/90 - Forest 8th - Colback 2nd (2.36), Williams 5th= (2.25), 11th Kouyate (2.14), Aurier 17th (1.90), Lodi 48th= (1.59)
- Blocks/90 - Forest 5th - Danilo 6th= (2.41), Filipe 14th= (2.15), O'Brien 21st= (2.00)
- Intercepts/90 - Forest 9th - Filipe 2nd (2.28), Boly & Williams 26th= (1.58), Niakhate 47th= (1.47)
- Clearances/90 - Forest 2nd - Boly 7th (5.92), Filipe 8th (5.70), McKenna 19th (4.86), Cook 21st (4.81), Niakhate 28th (4.65), Worrall 30th (4.49)
- HeaderWon - Forest 14th - Cook 5th (73.0%), Filipe 42nd (63.4%), Worrall 44th= (62.5%), McKenna 50th= (61.0%)
Possession stats (min 5 games to qualify plus other factors)
- ProgDist/90 (yards carried forward) - Forest 19th - Dennis 91st (105.0 yards)
- ProgC/90 (dribble 10 yards further than 6 possessions before) - Forest 19th - Dennis 62nd (3.00)
- TakeOnAttemts/90 (taking on defenders) - Forest 20th - Dennis 5th (6.63)
- TakeOnWin - Forest 14th - Danilo 5th (73.7%)
- Carry1/3 /90 (dribbling into oppo third) - Forest 19th - Dennis & Gibbs-White 70th= (1.88)
- CarryBox/90 (dribbling into oppo box) - Forest 19th - Johnson 41st= (1.29)
- Miscontrol/90 (bad stat) - Forest 12th worst - Awoniyi 2nd (4.36), Dennis 5th (4.00), Gibbs-White 46th (2.76)
- Dispossessed/90 (bad stat) - Forest 20th worst - Dennis 3rd (3.13), Awoniyi 43rd (1.86)
- Fouled/90 - Forest 11th - Dennis 1st (3.63), Yates 13th= (2.60), O'Brien 18th (2.31)
- Recoveries/90 - Forest 18th - O'Brien 15th (7.85), Filipe 52nd (6.84)
Passing stats (min 5 games to qualify and excluding goalkeepers)
- ProgDist/90 (yards passed forward) - Forest 20th - Shelvey 62nd (310.2 yards), Worrall 77th (291.0 yards)
- ProgP/90 (pass10 yards further than 6 possessions before) - Forest 20th - Shelvey 51st= (5.67), Gibbs-White 138th= (3.97)
- MidCompl (15-30 yard successful pass) - Forest 20th - Yates 90th= (86.5%)
- LongCompl (30+ yard successful pass) - Forest 19th - Worrall 108th (57.2%)
- Pass1/3 /90 (completed pass into oppo third) - Forest 20th - Shelvey 20th (6.17), Worrall 147th (3.04)
- PassBox/90 - Forest 20th - Shelvey 63rd= (1.33), Gibbs-White 82nd= (1.21)
- CrossBox/90 - Forest 20th - Williams 52nd= (0.43), Toffolo 63rd= (0.38)
- AttemptCross/90 - Forest 17th - Gibbs-White 26th= (4.88), Williams 40th (4.26)
Goal and Shot Creation stats (min 5 games to qualify)
- SCA/90 (2 attacking actions leading to a shot) - Forest 20th - Gibbs-White 31st= (3.60)
- GCA/90 (2 attacking actions leading to a goal) - Forest 19th - Gibbs-White 63rd= (0.36), Johnson 70th= (0.34)
- KeyPass/90 (pass leading to a shot) - Forest 20th - Gibbs-White 27th (2.00)
Shooting stats (min 5 games to qualify)
- Shots/90 - Forest 20th - Awoniyi 40th (2.24), Gibbs-White 69th (1.73)
- ShotOnTaget - Forest 18th - Johnson 21st= (46.2%), Awoniyi 35th= (42.9%)
- GoalPerShot - Forest 15th - Awoniyi 1st= (0.29), Johnson 55th= (0.13)
- Goals-XG/90 (goals - expected goals per game) - Forest 13th - Awoniyi 6th= (+0.22), Danilo 17th= (+0.14), O'Brien 26th= (0.11), Kouyate 59th= (0.06)
So what can we learn from the above?
Also, let's remember Cooper likes training the first team with two sets of XI, plus there can be a 3rd goalkeeper, so a core squad of 23 players is the target. The reason why this is important is so that:
1) as many players can be involved in the 11-on-11 training sessions
2) if there are injuries, it gives the U21 players an opportunity to join the senior team training, which is key in progressing the Academy players
Goalkeepers - Henderson is a better option than Navas and we know that Henderson is being chased (albeit with some De Gea possible issues at ManU). But the reality is stats that are on the goalkeeper alone show that although all-round Henderson does ok, a better shot-stopper from open play is needed or Henderson needs to work on this aspect of his game. This is evidenced by Forest being in the bottom 3 for the number of goals actually let in vs what is expected from the quality of the opposition's chances.
Three keepers are usually favoured and Horvath kept 20 clean sheets for Luton Town this season, so should be kept as #3 goalkeeper (or sold off the back of that to made some good money and keep Hennessey, with Smith having been released). But a top keeper is needed to challenge Henderson or whoever is brought in as the #1 goalkeeper. This is a large priority position to get right this summer.
Target state: 3 players (Horvath/Hennessey and 2 to be bought)
Sold: Horvath/Hennessey
Central Defenders - Filipe is a Premiership-leading quality central defender, he just needs to be a little more commanding in the air. Given this key area needing coverage, Cook should be considered if he can step up in his all-round game, but more likely a new central defender will be brought in with excellent aerial prowess that matches Filipe's all-round abilities (Harry Souttar at relegated Leicester City won 86.4% of all his headed duels).
Forest's very low average possession raises the rate that defensive actions are needed, but outside of Filipe, the central defensive unit does need to raise their level or have a better defender brought in to pair up with Filipe as the 1st choice pairing. Although being around the top 20 is theoretically good, all the bottom teams had their central defenders up the top of these stats and 20th best central defender in the Premiership amongst the bottom teams is actually not high up enough for the frequency of defensive actions. This is reinforced by Forest's overall ranking in all-bar blocking being outside of the top 5, which is not good enough for a team that was battling relegation and have very low possession stats all season.
Given the central back unit needs to cater for 2 or 3 starting, there should be 6 players deep at this position. From the defenders' report and the need for continuity in the team, Filipe, Boly, Niakhate and Worrall should be kept (Worrall as the club captain has importance and his form improved dramatically at the end of the season). The 6 players are needed for injury depth more than tactical flexibility, so the 5th and 6th need to be good enough to cover for the odd game. As such Kouyate can double as a decent defender, the logical move is to bring in another Filipe-level defender with speed and aerial excellence and lift the starting quality of the unit. McKenna and Cook are then sold. If a new central defender is not bought, then Cook should be kept over McKenna.
Target state: 5 players (Filipe, Boly, Niakhate, Worrall and 1 to be bought. Kouyate is counted in midfielders.)
Sold: Cook and McKenna
Full/wingbacks - Williams is developing into a Premiership top-quality wingback, with good stats defensively and going forward this season. This is important in many ways, not least that he can play either flank which allows Forest to have 5 full/wingbacks to be able to give 3 deep coverage of each flank. Aurier has shown his value and has extended his contract for another year. Richards is hopefully going to be fit and challenging for the starting left-side place. There is only a very slim chance that Lodi will be returning, so plan B is needed.
But with Williams' flexibility, a top-quality full/wingback can be brought in on either flank to raise standards further, giving decent quality depth (Richard's depending) 2 deep on each flank and 3 deep on the side the new full/wingback comes in on. Biancone is coming back from injury and Toffolo is still around, but Colback has left. Depending on if the new central defender, who should be mobile, can play on the opposite flank that the new full/wingback plays on, this would allow Biancone and Toffolo to be released (Biancone should be loaned out if so). Furthermore, if Niakhate can adapt to play left back at a pinch, this gives more flexible cover with further streamlining the squad (and not as risky as central defenders should be 6 deep).
Target state: 4 players (Williams, Aurier, Richards and 1 to be bought. The new central defender should be able to play fullback.)
Sold: Toffolo
Loaned out: Baincone
Midfielders: Looking at the above stats just adds to the aura building around young Danilo in his breakout season. Having lit up the run-in with his 3 goals and an assist, we can also see his Premiership quality in blocking, beating defenders and finishing difficult chances. He must be one of the first names on the starting sheet each week for Cooper next season.
The midfield unit needs diversity, with defensive, passing, dribbling and shooting skills all needed. Danilo provides an attacking option with the ball at his feet and a goal threat. Kouyate is the flexible option with central defenders and provides a good defensive option. Mangala improved as the season went on and provides a balance of each of the factors so provides flexibility. The main creative passer is Shelvey, but with huge issues with him in the squad and with his behaviour, he is likely to be sold for the good of the squad dynamics. This creates a huge hole for midfield passing creativity. This is needed to allow Gibbs-White to operate further up the pitch to influence the final 1/3 more. Scarpa could be a backup in midfield but he also has the same issue as Shelvey, which is that they are not known for defensive skills (and I think is more of a backup to Gibbs-White). What is really needed is a leading passing defensive midfielder who is good in the air, something Freuler really has not managed to do this season (relegated Leed's Tyler Adams fits the bill well). Freuler does not have the flexibility that Kouyate has, so should be sold.
Colback and Cafu have left the club with contracts expiring.
Yates has had a very underwhelming season, but his value is still seen in how he lifts the team around him and is one of the most fouled players in the Premiership. As vice-captain as well, he is likely to be retained and he should provide flexibility like Mangala (box-to-box midfielders). O'Brien, before he was left out of the 25-person squad in January, actually put in some very good performances, he just needed to stop losing the ball. He should be kept and given a chance to stake a claim in the squad. He provides a carrying threat, a decent shot and is exceptional at recovering the ball.
This gives two attacking threats in Danilo and O'Brien. Two balanced players are Mangala and Yates. Kouyate is the one specialist defensive player. Without a leading creative passer, one needs to be brought in who can also double in the defensive area. Scarpa provides backup in the passing creation role from the forwards.
What is clear is that the midfield unit needs to step up, even if Forest's counterattacking style continues. Passing completion %'s are woeful, and Worrell is the next best at passing into the opposition's final 1/3 after the probably departing Shelvey. More possession will help with forward passing stats, but overall the passing game needs to sharpen up. The dribbling game is also very poor, but Danilio and O'Brien should be given a license to support Gibbs-White more to rectify this.
Target state: 6 players (Danilo, Mangala, O'Brien, Kouyate, Yates and 1 to be bought).
Sold: Shelvey and Freuler
Forwards: Adding up the target states so far, we have 18 players, which given the ideal 22 plus a 3rd goalkeeper, leaves space for 5 forwards. This seems light as there should be two players in each position with the issue being the above gives flexibility for a back 5 and also 3 in midfield (which would mean only 2 upfront as seen in the run-in). But cover is needed for playing 3 forwards.
In Awoniyi, Forest have a Premiership-leading striker. Gibbs-White will improve and Johnson is a valuable weapon up front, he just needs to become more consistently involved in games. Scarpa has already been mentioned to give backup flexibility to both Gibbs-White and midfield. Wood is the natural backup to Awoniyi and Dennis is the backup to Johnson (well, Dennis actually per game performed better this season than Johnson in nearly everything per game across the board other than keeping the ball). Dennis could also cover for Gibbs-White, so provides flexibility, especially if Scarpa is not consistently up to the task.
That already brings the forwards to 6. Lingard and Ayew have been released at the end of their contracts. For Surridge and Mighten, playing time will not be coming next season, so they should be loaned out to get further starting experience to boost their value, or sold.
If Forest go into the market for a forward, then I expect Wood to be the one to make way and be sold given Dennis' flexibility. But Cooper might have tried all he can to iron out Dennis' possession flaw that holds him back from being the weapon he was at Watford. That would determine the replacement order, but any player coming in needs to be better than these two. A strategic call needs to be made by Cooper on the style Forest will play next season and if having a target man is required. If so, if Wood is sold, then a like-for-like replacement is needed. If Dennis is sold, there really needs to be a backup for Gibbs-White in case Scarpa is not able to be this consistently.
Target state: 6 players (Awoniyi, Johnson, Gibbs-White, Scarpa, Wood/Dennis and 1 to be bought in).
Sold: Wood/Dennis
Loaned out: Surridge and Mighten
This gives a squad of 24 players, 21 being outfield players. Although not ideal for training numbers, which are still 1 over the ideal number of 20 outfield players, this gives Forest 1 extra wild card to bring in if desired.
There is also the option of bringing in more young talent that will qualify for the U21 B registration squad (rumours of wonderkids from Brazil or ManCity are being touted). This is theoretically good, but there is some caution here:
1) it further disrupts the Cooper goal of having 20 outfield players to train with
2) it further limits the opportunities of the current Academy players to get senior training time and break through to the senior team
But it will inject a speedy lift to the quality of Forest's Category 1 Academy which, like with the senior team, raises the training standards of all those around them.
Forest's training focuses:
- A greater effort to dribble more positively and take on more defenders
- Improve passing accuracy at all distances
- Improve recovering contested balls
- Increase possession with more attack-minded passing
Transfer Summary:
So the transfers that are needed:
- 2 starting quality goalkeepers
- 1 starting quality central defender with speed and aerial command, that can play fullback
- 1 starting quality left or right back (opposite side to the central defender above)
- 1 starting quality passing midfielder with defensive qualities
Transfers that are nice-to-haves:
- Any youth player that has bags of potential that will count to the U21 B list (so not count toward the 25-player squad limit)
- A first-team quality forward that can double as a striker and supporting forward/target man (depending on who is sold)
What are your feelings on Forest's team and leading player stats? Do you agree with my transfer opinions? Please leave your comments below!