So after the usual nerve-jangling Forest season, this season more so than most, how of each of the members of the senior men's squad performed, and who is likely up for the chop?
Each player has a report card, my thoughts on their transfer status, and then a reflection at the bottom about sensible transfer activity for the positions in the article.
But as my mantra goes, the answer is in data! So I have pulled relevant data statistics from fbref.com (fed by Opta data) to analyse player performance in key areas.
With the whole squad to review, this article covers the Manager and the Goalkeepers.
For the other positions, please see (links will be updated as articles are published):
Manager:
Steve Cooper - Keep (report card 9/10)
All hail the saviour of Nottingham! Copper took over Forest on the 21st of September 2021, with the team rooted to the bottom of the Championship, 3 points adrift and every home game having been lost so far that season. For that season to result in Forest being promoted was miracle #1 orchestrated by Cooper.
He only had a few players from that Championship squad that could cut it at Premiership level, so 23 players were signed for the start of that first season back in the top flight for 23 years. To fully understand the magnitude of what Cooper was facing to keep Forest up, please just read about the squad he had here. Note the average spend on those players was £6.3m per player, so it was not an entire squad of proven superstars that he was handed.
So Cooper embarked this season on miracle #2, which was keeping them up. There is no point in dressing this up, the size of this task has never been faced by another club battling to stay up in the top flight. A nearly entirely new squad had to be understood, trained, meshed together, and figure out who is best where and with who around them, there were so many key injuries (45 injuries before the Arsenal game that kept them up, only 1 less than top injured team Chelsea) and constant negative press not only about the team but the security of his job.
He has admitted himself he was learning as the season progressed. There has been the odd questionable substitution and for that, he lost 1 point in his rating. But the fans stuck by him through thick and thin, and the impact on the whole city of Nottingham is evident.
Once all the above eventually settled down and came together, Forest found their form (6th best in the league over the last 6 games post the Arsenal win) and were safe with one game to spare. It is fair to say that Copper in less than two seasons has become a Forest legend, only sat in the management legendary ranking behind Brian Clough.
Goalkeepers
There has been much debate amongst fans as to who has performed better for Forest: Henderson or Navas. As I very much like to say, the answer is in the data.
The data points being presented are:
These indicate at a high level how well the goalkeeper has performed:
- Clean Sheet % - the percentage of games where a clean sheet was kept
- Goals per game - the average number of goals conceded per game
​ | Clean Sheet % | Goals per game |
Dean Henderson | 33.3% | 1.8 |
Keylor Navas | 5.9% | 1.9 |
Wayne Hennessey | 0% | 1.7 |
Data insight: On the face of it, Henderson gets the nod as the better overall goalkeeper. Both goalkeepers had one of Forest's long winless runs, but Henderson was playing for the first half of the season when Forest were trying to find an identity, had a brand new squad and were playing the more flowing football that got them promoted from the Championship. During that early period, 15 goals were conceded to hammerings to ManC, Leicester and Arsenal, which when taken into consideration, further strengthen Henderson's position, if those leaky games were not his fault. The next set of statistics help inform that point.
These indicate how good they are at shot-stopping and how quick their reflexes are:
- Save % - the percentage of shots faced that were saved
- PSxG+/- - the difference between the actual saves made less the expected number of saves (given the nature of the shot) averaged over every 90 mins played (+ is good goalkeeping)
​ | Save % | PSxG+/- |
Dean Henderson | 65.9% | -0.23 |
Keylor Navas | 66.3% | -0.16 |
Wayne Hennessey | 63.6% | -0.1 |
Data insight: It appears that there is not much difference between Henderson and Navas when it comes to stopping shots faced and stopping what is expected to be saved, with Navas having a very slight edge. It also shows that Hennessey is a decent understudy for shot-stopping.
This is simply the best statistic showing how good a penalty stopper they are:
- Pen % - the percentage of faced penalties that were saved
​ | Pen % |
Dean Henderson | 50% |
Keylor Navas | 0% |
Wayne Hennessey | n/a |
Data insight: the data backs up the memories through the season, which shows Henderson is the one Forest want between the sticks when penalties are being faced.
These statistics can indicate how good command of their box, surrounding area and awareness a goalkeeper has:
- Cross % - the percentage of crosses into the box that were saved by the goalkeeper
- Def out of box - the average number of times per 90 mins the goalkeeper comes out of their box to clear danger
- Clear dist - the average distance the goalkeeper came to make those out-of-the-box clearances
​ | Cross % | Def out of box | Clear dist |
Dean Henderson | 6.9% | 1.5 | 15.6 |
Keylor Navas | 4.7% | 0.53 | 9.2 |
Wayne Hennessey | 0% | 1 | 17.8 |
Data insight: These stats do indicate that Henderson has more command of his box, is more alert to the danger outside of his box with through balls and is more mobile and speedy to deal with such dangers.
These statistics indicate the way the goalkeeper distributes the ball from in their hands, not from goal kicks:
- Launch % - the percentage of times the goalkeeper kicks the ball out over 40 yards
- Launch compl % - the percentage of the over 40 yards distributions ended up as a completed pass
- Pass dist - the average distance the goalkeeper distributes the ball
​ | Launch % | Launch compl % | Pass dist |
Dean Henderson | 47.2% | 32.3% | 38.2m |
Keylor Navas | 56.3% | 33.1% | 41.3m |
Wayne Hennessey | 42.9% | 59.3% | 37.6m |
Data insights: I have been vocal with my perception that Navas' distribution with the ball in hand has been below par. Looking at the data, it does look like he does launch it long more than Henderson, but not by much, but his completion on these long kicks out is marginally better than Henderson's. So honours even I would say in this category. Special mention goes to Hennessey, in these 2 games, he kicked long less than the others and was far more accurate with it.
Completion out via launches with either primary goalkeeper is around 1 in 3 kicks having possession being retained, so the aim should be to play out from the back more.
Dean Henderson - Buy (report card - 8/10)
Although injured back in January whilst facing Leicester, Henderson picked up 6 clean sheets while the Forest team tried to find a settled 1st XI and an identity. He showed he is a good shot-stopper, a good communicator with good awareness, a very good penalty stopper (useful as Forest gave away more penalties than any other Premiership team (8)) and decent in distribution.
At the time of injury, Forest were on a great run of form with only 2 losses (Arsenal and ManU) in 9 matches and sat in 13th place. With the team now having an identity and a good idea of a settled XI, Henderson would have made Forest better in the season run-in.
Henderson is a potential England goalkeeper and ManU have already put him on the transfer list. Forest will benefit from a settled team in between seasons, so unless the cost is insane, Forest should buy him (at the time of writing, a figure of around £30m is being bounced around which seems not outrageous for a young keeper with England international potential).
Keylor Navas - Let the loan lapse (report card 7/10)
Navas came in as a marquee signing, much to the disbelief of many a Forest fan, sporting 3 Champions League medals. He was very much needed to fill in for injured Henderson. He got off to a cracking start with a clean sheet against Leeds, but that was his last clean sheet until the critical game vs Arsenal. Being critical, in this part of the season, the team was more settled, Cooper has adopted a more pragmatic defensive approach and the team was gelling for the run-in, so he had an easier job than Henderson.
He most certainly did pull off a string of world-class saves, but in my opinion, there was far too much unnecessary punching of the ball, rather than just catching it and taking away the danger. Looking at the stats above, he is marginally a better shot-stopper than Henderson but overall, the stats just favour Henderson, who is a more-rounded goalkeeper. But his passion and commitment were not in question.
Given he is much older than Henderson and he is likely on an eye-watering wage package, I would release Navas at the end of this loan and free up some space on the wage bill.
Wayne Hennessey - Keep (report card 5/10)
Hennessey was called in for the semi-final cup matches against ManU (plus the league game around that time) for which Henderson would have been cup-tied even if he was not injured. He also covered the Bournemouth game whilst Navas was being chased down and signed. That game was away and was a draw, but a win would have been hoped for with Forest's form at the time. The ManU results were not his fault and his stats above are not miles behind Henderson and Navas, albeit stats over only 2 games.
A professional squad player with a great attitude and will not be taking up much on the wage bill, given Forest need stability in the dressing room, keeping Hennessey as a third keeper makes sense.
Transfer notes: Henderson or another top goalkeeper needs to be signed, Navas to be released and a good keeper to push that top keeper should be bought (on reasonable wages).
Hennessey can act as the 3rd goalkeeper. Horvath needs to be brought back to be assessed, and with 20 clean sheets when on loan to Luton Town (who have just been promoted to the Premiership) he has the potential to be the 2nd or 3rd goalkeeper, but if not then he should be sold, and I am sure Luton Town will pay good money for him.
Smith has been a wonderful servant to the club, can he switch to coaching in the youth system and retire? Kanuric (22 years old) should continue to develop with first-team action on loan.
Do you agree with these ratings and transfer predictions? Do the stats surprise you at all? Please let me know below! Much appreciated!