So after the usual nerve-jangling Forest season, this season more so than most, how of each of the members of the senior men's squad performed, and who is likely up for the chop?
Each player has a report card, my thoughts on their transfer status, and then a reflection at the bottom about sensible transfer activity for the positions in the article.
But as my mantra goes, the answer is in data! So I have pulled relevant data statistics from fbref.com (fed by Opta) to analyse player performance in key areas.
With the whole squad to review, this article covers the Defenders.
For the other positions, please see:
Central Defenders
For this analysis, Loic Mbe Soh has not been included in the statistical analysis as he has been out on loan for all of the season.
With a number of central defenders playing this season, we head back to data to see what that tells us about performance, rather than the general chatter on social media:
- TacklesWon - the number of successful tackles winning back possession per 90 minutes played
- Interception - the number of successful interceptions made per 90 minutes played
- Clearance - the number of clearances made per 90 minutes played
- Block - the number of successful blocks made per 90 minutes played
- Recover - the number of loose balls recovered per 90 minutes
The colour rating scheme I have used is a comparison between the Forest players (gold for leading the stat, then green, amber and red as expected). It does not reflect how well that stat compares to the overall Premiership standard. That analysis is done in the overall squad en-of-season report.
| TacklesWon | Interception | Clearance | Block | Recover |
Worrall | 1 | 1.1 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 5 |
McKenna | 0.4 | 0.7 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 3.9 |
Cook | 0.4 | 1.1 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 3.3 |
Niakhate | 0.7 | 1.5 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 5.5 |
Filipe | 1.5 | 2.3 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 6.8 |
Boly | 0.8 | 1.6 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 5.3 |
Data insights: Clearly Filipe is head and shoulders the best central defender for Forest this season, having an instant impact having arrived in January, leading across every category above.
Although Boly has not had many games, he has shone in those games. He, Worrall and Niakhate all have higher-end stats in each category other than one each, but Boly takes one category off Filipe as the leader in every statistic, for the rate of clearances. What does need to be worked on is the successful tackle rate, with only Filipe and Worrall having a rate of at least 1 successful tackle per 90 minutes played.
Clearances are fairly equal across the central defenders other than Filipe and Boly who excel.
McKenna and Cook are notably behind the others, although they were deployed in the first half of the season when the squad was less settled. What is of note was that it was Cook that was left out of the 25-person squad in January when actually the data indicates he had performed better than McKenna.
Joe Worrall - Keep (report card - 7/10)
Starting with one player that probably has the more controversial decisions on rating and transfer status. Worrall is the club captain and is touted to have had a very up-and-down season. The fan base has been very loyal generally, but Worrall has been in for the treatment that Yates has been used to a few seasons ago. Of the very few players that transitioned from the Championship side, Worrall seemed to be the one who struggled the most with the step-up, and it was mainly about the speed of reaction and movement, which is demonstrated by his low interception rate. There has never been a question over desire and putting his body on the line for very painful blocks and getting tackles in. He was dropped in the middle part of the season, but in the crucial run-in where Forest reverted to a back 5, a slot opened back up for him and he shone in the back line, hardly putting a foot wrong over a run of games.
Although his stats above are pretty strong and he has played the third most minutes of any squad player (7 full games more than McKenna, who was the next most used central defender), fans do remember he has been at fault for a few goals, especially in the early part of the season. They do though now seem to acknowledge that he has stepped up his level especially in season-end run-in. It is notable that Worrall has chipped in with 2 goal-line clearances.
Three factors go into the decision not to sell him. Firstly he is the club captain and he must have been part of the miracle of glueing together a nearly entirely new squad in under a season. The second reason is linked to that, in that the core of the squad from the wonderful Forest Academy and part of the Championship side needs to be retained, as that is the engine room of identity that Cooper has been building. The third point is around his huge improvement to be a legitimate Premiership-level defender, after self-reflection and development under very difficult circumstances. That shows character and strength of will, all characteristics the dressing room needs in abundance.
Scott McKenna - Sell (report card - 5/10)
This season has been very tough for McKenna, who was absolutely key in getting Forest promoted the season before. With a number of central defenders brought in (they had 6 in the squad after the January transfer window) opportunities were going to be slim. He suffered from the majority of his minutes (10th most in the squad) coming in the first half of the season when Forest had not really clicked yet and were on the end of some large defeats. His stats above show the gap between him and those that have been chosen to start in the second half of the season.
With Filipe, Boly, Niakhate and Worrall further up the pecking order than him, and McKenna being a perfectly good player, it is only fair to him to sell him onto a club where he will get game time.
Steve Cook - Sell (report card - 5/10)
Cook, much like McKenna, has been starved of opportunities with the additions to the back line. He also was instrumental in getting Forest promoted. But with even less game time than McKenna (7 games less), he was seen as further down the pecking order than McKenna, even though the data does not show that. Arguably Cook was the better of the two last season (and the stats this season show the same again). His stats above, like McKenna's, show the gap with the other defenders and he was left out of the 25-man squad in January (as mentioned above, the stats question if this was the right decision). It should not be lost that his attitude was very good when around the squad and pitched in when needed, which is backed up with his very supportive tweets about the club.
Cook should have been let go in January with three clubs interested, and that should be followed up this close season with him leaving Forest.
Filipe - Keep (report card - 9/10)
Filipe is arguably the best defensive signing that Forest have made this season (Aurier for free is in the debate). The stats above back that up, along with the already cult-like following he has generated amongst the Forest supporters. With his aggressive style, he is perceived as the general of the backline and has delivered on the experience and skill he was touted to bring to Forest. Commanding the back line, with all the battling qualities we saw of the Forest trio in the Championship, but at Premiership level. His performances have not been faultless, with the odd marker lost on corners, but overall he is one of the reasons for Forest making it over the line to stay up this season. He also has chipped in with a goal-line clearance as well as having 1.1 dribbles out of defence on average per game, usually to inject some drive into the team.
Although Forest were still very leaky in the second half of the season, Filipe has been far better consistently than the rest of the central defenders in that period. Hence the score of 9. whoscored.com also agreed with Filipe's performances, being the only player in the squad to have an average match rating over 7.
He forms part of this exciting Brazilian group that has landed at Forest, and so he provides a number of important roles for next season. He should anchor the back line, he should provide influence to the junior defenders coming through from the Forest Academy and he should help keep key Brazilian players for the future, like Danilo, happy so they also stay. He might be what is needed to try and convert Lodi to sign permanently with Forest, with Ldi recently indicating he has played his last game for Forest. There are also rumours of further Palmeiras signings, so keeping the Brazilians at Forest happy and enthusiastic will help that conveyor belt of talent from Brazil to Forest.
Moussa Niakhate - Keep (report card 7/10)
Niakhate arrived at Forest to a bit of expectation from the Forest fans, and does provide the back line with much-needed mobility, as the other central defenders are not blessed with an abundance of pace, which is really needed in the Premiership against some of the best forwards in the world. He has struggled with injury which has not helped him get a consistent run of games to strike up defensive partnerships (he has only played a little over 1/3 of available minutes this season). But what is evident is his quality and that expectation amongst the Forest faithful is still there.
His stats above are not top of the pack, but still not too bad. But where he has turned into a seriously potent weapon for Forest is with his long throw-in when in the opposition's 3rd. Forest have managed to score from 3 of such throws, which is very impressive when taken against all other Premiership sides, who only amassed 5 altogether. Extraploated over a whole season, this is a serious weapon for Forest and make's him a nearly-must have on the first XI team sheet.
His pace and long throw-ins make him a very important part of the back line when fully fit. He does also use that pace to take the ball forward out of defence, with 0.7 dribbles per game on average.
Willy Boly - Keep (report card - 7/10)
Boly had very much been blighted by injury this season (clocking up 7.6 games only), and if it was not for that, I think he would be lauded up towards the levels of Filipe. When fully fit, he has put in some commanding performances at the back. His stats are good even only having played the equivalent of about 7 games and not settled in the side. When fully fit and with a run in the side, he will be a very valuable part of the central defensive options for next season.
Boly is the third of the central defenders that injects some urgency when needed, averaging a dribble out of defence once every other game. He is also the only central defender to have picked up a man-of-the-match award this season, which indicates with a run in the team, he will improve and be a key part of the defensive unit. If he had more games under his belt with the same level of performance, his report card would have scored higher.
Loic Mbe Soh - Keep (report card - n/a)
Mbe Soh is only 21 and is one for the future. He has been out at Guingamp on loan all season and has clocked up 9 appearances with a goal. Progress should be monitored out at loan further to show any of the promise from being a PSG academy player and being in the France international setup all the way up to U19 level.
Transfer notes: Copper has been switching between a back 4 and a back 5, with the latter seeming to have sparked the fine form in the season run-in to save Forest from the drop. The issue this causes is that whilst a midfield 3 is maintained to give suitable protection, this forces one of Johsnon, Gibbs-White and Awoniyi to start on the bench (Johnson in the run-in). But there needs to be enough depth in numbers and quality to cater for a back 5. As such 5 central defenders seem right, with cover from the fullbacks if injuries ravage Forest again next season (Lodi and Aurier, if they return, could cover in central defence). That gives the opportunity to bring in another top-quality defender to complement the central defensive unit of Filipe, Niakhate, Worrall and Boly, who are all now Premiership quality, but they need to be all fit for a full pre-season together to get the unit really slick.
Fullbacks / Wingbacks
Forest have used 2 left and 2 right-sided defenders this season. Using the same data approach, we will look at both defensive and attacking statistics given Forest like getting their wide defenders up the pitch to support the attack, especially when playing them as wingbacks.
For this analysis, Guilian Biancone has not been included in the statistical analysis as he only played 1/5th of a game before being injured for the rest of the season.
For defensive analysis, we are going to look at the same characteristics as we did above for central defenders:
- TacklesWon - the number of successful tackles winning back possession per 90 minutes played
- Interception - the number of successful interceptions made per 90 minutes played
- Clearance - the number of clearances made per 90 minutes played
- Block - the number of successful blocks made per 90 minutes played
- Recover - the number of loose balls recovered per 90 minutes
| TacklesWon | Interception | Clearance | Block | Recover |
Aurier | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 5.8 |
Williams | 2.3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 6.1 |
Lodi | 1.6 | 1.3 | 3 | 1 | 6.2 |
Toffolo | 0.8 | 1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 5.2 |
Data insights: From this defensive data, it appears that the right side of the defence is much stronger than the left. Aurier and Williams share the majority of the top-end statistic between them. Aurier seems to excel, as expected, in the more fullback role of blocking and clearing, whilst Williams is more in that mobile wingback role of tackling, intercepting and recovering loose balls (but also blocking). Surprisingly honours are even between Aurier and Williams in a rounded defensive capacity.
Lodi's stats back up his mobility, with him being top at recovering loose balls and high at making interceptions. He also has a high rate of clearances. But he is lower than fans may perceive (including my own perception) in successful tackles and blocking, although his performances have improved as the season progressed.
Toffolo has had by far the least time on the pitch (10.4 games). He does pretty well in a number of the stats, but does not have a high successful tackle count and is not as good as the others at intercepting the ball, so more of a profile like Aurier, rather than Williams like many might expect.
If we now look at the more attacking characteristics, as is very much appreciated when fullbacks/wingbacks get themselves forward to stretch the game, support the attackers and create chances:
- Crosses - the number of crosses made into the opposition box on average per 90 minutes played
- ProgDist - the average number of metres in a forward direction made per 90 mins with the ball at their feet
- Att1/3 - the average number of times the ball is touched in the opposition's final 1/3 of the pitch
- DefTakeon - the average number of times the player attempted to dribble the ball past an opposition defender (not a perfect stat as this does not include 1-2'ing around a defender)
- TakeSuc - the percentage of attempts to dribble the ball past an opposition defender that were successful
| Crosses | ProgDist | Att1/3 | DefTakeon | TakeSuc |
Aurier | 1.9 | 65m | 12.2 | 1.5 | 50% |
Williams | 4.3 | 99m | 14.8 | 2.6 | 35% |
Lodi | 3.1 | 56m | 10.7 | 1.6 | 41% |
Toffolo | 2.8 | 33m | 14.5 | 0.9 | 38% |
Data insights: Williams has been deployed more as a wingback when Forest played a back5 so you would expect his attacking stats to be better than Aurier's. Lodi has had the majority of time on the left all season, so has a blend of playing fullback and wingback.
Williams is the standout of the wide defenders, as we would expect given his positional play, but he really does excel in all bar one of these characteristics. He is by far the most positive with the ball at his feet, the most positionally forward and has a very good crossing rate. The one area he needs to work on is his success at beating the opposition defender.
Aurier stats show he is not as far forward as Williams, but what is interesting is that when he does go forward, he is the best at beating the opposition defender when he does venture forward.
Lodi does pretty well when forward, being second best at cross-rate, taking on defenders and beating them. Given he plays wingback more than Aurier, it would be expected he would run forward more with the ball than Aurier, but indicates he balances getting forward with and without the ball. He is the second-best attacking option of the 4 players, behind Williams.
Toffolo does have the most average touches in the opposition 1/3 of the pitch, and a decent cross-rate, but his dribbling stats are very poor. As such, this seems to indicate he gets up the pitch with 1-2's rather than balls at his feet.
Serge Aurier - Extend Contract (report card - 8/10)
Aurier has been one of the most successful transfers made by Forest in the last season, having been signed on a free transfer, bringing a wealth of Premiership experience, lots of passion and some exceptional performances when he has kept very good left-wingers completely in his pocket all game. The more keen-eyed observer will have spotted that he has been caught on a number of occasions not tracking back after a foray forward but then Forest turning over the ball, which can't happen at this level. But on balance, he has been a huge success.
With his experience and quality, Aurier should be resigned if only for the fact that he can pass on more of his knowledge and experience to Williams, Richards and even to Lodi if he stays. He will have no transfer fee if he is resigned, or his contract should be extended by 1 year if that clause is still valid. Stability in the squad is key, so resigning a player of his calibre is important.
Neco Williams - Keep (report card - 8/10)
Having moved over from Liverpool but also coming to Forest who has just had an explosive season with a raiding right-hand flank with Djed Spence in the Championship, expectations with Williams were potentially harshly very high, especially as he only turned 22 years old this April.
He was thrown straight into the team (6 of the starting XI at Newcastle on the opening day were new signings) as the team was trying to find some identity and legs, whilst he was still heavily developing. As Aurier came in, he shifted to the left side, as he often plays for Wales, which demonstrates his value through diversity to the team. This flexibility has been further enhanced when Cooper shifted him into midfield, during one of the many injury crises, and he showed that he can operate there suitably (which will be very important if captain-flexibility Colback moves on).
Given the stats above, he rates alongside Aurier as best in a defensive capacity, but also he has the best collection of stats from an attacking perspective. His large potential is there for all to see, and if he can improve his ability to beat his man when raiding forward alongside his general maturity in the game, he may very well become a force to be reckoned with in the Premiership.
Next season Williams should challenge for a starting place on either the right or left flank.
Renan Lodi - Sign (report card - 7/10)
Lodi arrived as part of this very exciting Brazilian contingent of the new Forest squad, from Atletico Madrid on loan, having been a key part of that top-end European team for a couple of years. He has found his place in the starting XI as the season progressed and his injuries settled down. He has operated as a fullback and a wingback as Cooper has been finding his settled formation and brought some assured, steady and experienced performances for someone still developing as he is only 25 years old now.
Lodi's stats for defending and attacking are not leading, but presents a balanced set of statistics with his areas for improvement being more on the defensive side. He does provide a very good outlet down the left, popping up to be passed too high up the pitch, which we can see with his very good cross-rate. Although he has fewer average touches in the final third than Aurier, he seems to be more productive with the ball there, although Aurier is stronger in defence.
As he is still developing, and like Filipe he is part of this key Brazilian contingent, signing Lodi would be a positive move. This especially helps reduce the turnover of the core first XI squad and Omar Richards has not kicked a competitive ball for Forest yet, so still is an unproven squad member on the left flank. If the cost is looking prohibitively high given the apparent rise in interest from him (rumours Newcastle are interested) and the fact his stats are not stellar, I would pass and invest in someone else. If Lodi is retained, focus on more rounded defending should be done in pre-season.
Harry Toffolo - Observe in pre-season (report card 6/10)
Toffolo arrived along with O'Brien from Huddersfield, fresh from being defeated by Forest in the Championship play-off final, but as two of the top performers from that Huddersfield team. Sadly for both of them, a wealth of other players were signed and opportunities in the starting XI were restricted, with Toffolo amassing just under 10 games worth of minutes.
Toffolo comes across as a true professional and has come on and given his all when called upon. His stats are a mixed bag. Defensively he is not up to the standard of the other 3 wide defenders, although slightly better than Lodi in clearing and blocking the ball. From an attacking perspective, he is very positive in the opposition final 1/3, second only to Williams, but is the least positive with the ball at his feet of all 4 of the wider defenders.
He is a decent player but at 27 is not going to develop a huge amount more, nor is he likely to get the required starting time at Forest to realise that potential. Selling him seems to make sense if Lodi or a first-team left-back is signed and Omar Richards is back from injury and lives up to expectations. With Williams also able to play on the left flank, the position should be covered. But caution should be held as Lodi is not yet signed and Richards still has not played any competitive minutes. So Toffolo should only be sold once the desired pieces are in place unless he can be retrained to work both flanks and is better than a fit Biancone (see below).
Omar Richards - Pre-season with a view to Keep (report card - n/a)
Sadly Richards was injured in the last pre-season and so has not kicked a competitive ball for Forest yet. But with an England U21 cap under his belt and with 12 games at Bayern Munich, he has some top-level experience and still with unlocked potential at the age of 25 years old. He also understands the English game having started at Reading.
He needs a full pre-season and needs to be assessed the serious injury has not impacted his potential. If he still has what Forest saw when buying him, then he should be kept and be part of the duo vying for the starting left-sided spot.
Giulian Biacone - Pre-season with a view to Keep (report card - n/a)
Biancone was injured having only appeared in the closing stages during the hammering by ManC once the game was lost but at the age of 23 currently, he is one to develop further for a year and then possibly sell. He will need to be assessed if the serious injury has impacted his ability, and he should be assessed in comparison to his ability vs Toffolo if Cooper is looking to trim down the squad.
Transfer notes: Although Forest have conceded far too many goals this season, if the haemorrhages at ManC, Leicester and Arsenal were not so severe (instead of 15 goals being conceded, 5 across the 3 games seems very reasonable for a maximum) then Forest's goal difference would be far better (only Leicester would have a better goal difference of all the clubs that were in the relegation discussion). A full pre-season, all fully fit, together will allow the whole back line to better integrate and get the understanding many other teams have from being together for many seasons.
As such, per above with 1 strong addition to the central defenders, the backline performance, if all are retained, will be improved next year. As such, I think if Aurier is extended and Lodi is signed back, then the wide defending is in a decent place. Richards needs to come back from injury as is like a new signing, and he needs to be assessed that this promise is still present and not impacted by his injury. If Lodi becomes too expensive to get back (or he does not want to come back which possibly might have been shown in his recent very grateful tweets), then someone with that top-level of experience needs to be brought in, and needs that have that balance of defence and attack to cater for both 4 and 5 at the back.
On the basis that Aurier will be resigned, Lodi is signed or replaced with a top left-back, Richards still has the talent when he was signed and gets fit and the fact Williams can work both flanks, that gives 2 that can play on the right vs 3 that can play on the left. As such, if Biancone is fit and has the potential to be an understudy at the Premiership level, then Toffolo can be released. The only way he would not be is if he can be taught to cover both flanks and is seen as better than Biancone, and then Biancone is released.
If neither Toffolo nor Biancone are seen as now up the grade with the improved direction of the Forest squad, then if the new central defender can cover the right flank at a pinch, that gives 3 players that can cover each flank and helps keep the squad trim and flexible.
Do you agree with these ratings and transfer predictions? Do the stats surprise you at all? Please let me know below! Much appreciated!