After a spending spree of around £600m last season, which was singlehandedly more than the combined top-flight clubs of the largest 5 leagues outside of England, there was the inevitable need to balance the books in the face of FFP rules.
This off-season has seen a wave of players being sold on. But when we see the names of Havertz, Mount, Kante, Kovacic, Azpilicueta, Koulibaly and Mendy being amongst those being sold, there is the worry of who then is going to start in the XI given these are all familiar names that have formed the basis of the starting XI over the recent past.
The model of Boehly and Co is to buy in world-quality youth, develop them into superstars to play for Chelsea, and probably sell the odd one to turn a huge profit and fund the next influx of young superstars each transfer window.
When we look down at the remaining squad, it is apparent Chelsea are not going to have an issue making the 25-person registration limit set by the Premier League. If we assume that Lukaku, Ziyech and Hudson-Odoi will not be on the books, but Gallagher will be kept, then Chelsea have 18 senior players. This does not cover an XI plus bench fully, but we know that Chelsea have youthful quality.
It is not clear which U21 players are going to be sent out on loan (and assuming if Ugochukwu is bought that he will go straight back out on loan) but Chelsea have no less than 11 U21 players to pick from around the senior team before deciding who is sent out for regular game time and development.
To understand if/where Chelsea have holes in their squad that need plugging with youth / new players, we need to understand how Pochettino will probably line them up. The good news is that he has been pretty consistent in which formation he has used at Southampton and Tottenham, which also follows the Beilsa school of football, under whom Pochettino learned his craft: 4-2-3-1.
Frustratingly for him and the fans, Wesley Fofana is looking at another lengthy session on the sidelines after having ACL surgery this off-season. So for now, he is not being put into consideration as recovery will be long and unpredictable.
David Fofana has already been loaned out for the season to Union Berlin for a full season.
As such this is the 1st and backup XI coverage of 4-2-3-1:
1st XI
2nd XI
There is another goalkeeper that is needed, with many thinking that Arrizabalaga should be a #2, with a better keeper brought in.
To make the above work well, and as Pochettino envisages, the foil to Fernandez needs to be a steely ball winner. Santos should eventually fill this role (the successor to Kante), but as it stands, the others are not proven to be what is needed. So a top-level ball winner is needed. I know I have a bet on how long it takes Gallagher to get a yellow card with those around me in the stands, so he is not that ball winner!
With the very positive performances already in pre-season from Jackson and Nkunku, Mudryk having a season under his belt of acclimatisation and being a year more mature and hopefully Chillwell and James are fit and stay fit, this team looks like it could challenge the top 4.
There are some positive aspects of the above XIs:
- Hall has shown he has first-team potential last season and can play in midfield but also might be able to cover AML
- Gallagher, Chukwuemka and Casadei can play MC or AMC
- Maatsen has shown he may be up to the Premier League level at LB, but there are 4 possible players in that position which is huge depth!
But there are some concerns:
- Broja is still coming back from a very serious injury and does not have a great deal of Premier League level experience.
- Casadei (20 years old), Gusto (20), Santos (19), Moriera (18) and Angelo (18) are all untested in the UK or at the Premier League level, although Casadei has come up through the Chelsea U21s.
- Santos still does not have a UK work permit
- Other than left back (but Cucurella and Hall did not overly convince last season) AMC and AMR, the backup to the 1st XI looks questionable or unknown at the Premier League level. So there is a large risk of the team performance taking a large dip if there are material injuries to the starting XI, as has already happened with Wesley Fofana
- If you take out Silva from the calculation, the average age of the starting 9 outfield players (missing 1 CM still) is 23.75 years old, which must be up there as the youngest in the league
Since the off-season last year, Chelsea have spent roughly a net £345m. The starting XI looks pretty strong, but the squad does not seem to have much mature depth. So it looks, save from some further signings other than a GK and ball-winning CM, this season will be tough again for Chelsea unless they can avoid any further material injuries.
The good news though is that many of the U21 players will be needed in the senior team and will likely get a decent amount of minutes throughout the season in league games from the bench or covering injuries. This bodes well for maybe next season, but for sure the season after.
So Chelsea are still in build mode, but a resurgent Chelsea challenging for the title looks like it may be on course for the 2025/26 season and then for a good few years after that.
The concern I have is that will Chelsea fans have that level of patience for a return to the top table.
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